DCS Business Model Transition Simulation

Model the death valley effect as markets transition from traditional to subscription DCS models with realistic project lifecycles

Total Market Revenue: Shows overall market including existing installed base (cushions transition impact)
New Projects Revenue: Reveals true transition challenge - where death valley is most visible
Death Valley Effect: Temporary revenue decline when traditional drops faster than subscription grows
20-Year Projects: Each project has realistic lifecycle with aging and retirement

Peak Adoption Year: When subscription adoption reaches maximum (1-20 years)
Peak Adoption Rate: Maximum percentage of new projects choosing subscription (10-100%)
Adoption Model: Mathematical pattern - S-Curve most realistic for technology transitions
Project Growth Rate: Annual increase in new DCS projects (market expansion)

Market CAGR: Overall growth rate during transition period
Death Valley Timing: When and how deep revenue declines occur
Crossover Point: When subscription revenue exceeds traditional in new projects
Long-term Benefits: Higher recurring revenue potential of subscription model

Start with defaults: S-Curve, 50% peak adoption, 10-year peak
Run simulation: Click "Run Simulation" to see baseline scenario
Experiment: Try different adoption models (Linear, Exponential, Logarithmic)
Compare scenarios: Adjust peak year/rate to model different transition speeds

Parameters

Initial Projects per Year

Number of new DCS projects starting each year

Project Growth Rate (%)

Annual growth in number of new projects

Peak Adoption Rate (%)

Maximum subscription adoption in new projects

Peak Adoption Year

Year when adoption rate peaks

Adoption Model

Mathematical model for adoption progression

Market CAGR to Peak

Traditional Peak→Y20

Subscription at Peak

Death Valley

Total Market

Cushioned

New Projects